Open-Source Economic Simulation Lab
Build, test, and validate
economic crisis models
A researcher-first platform for scenario simulation, sensitivity analysis, and reproducible macro forecasting. Public data. Open formula. Full transparency.
For Researchers
Your economic experimentation lab
Combine the governance controls of enterprise platforms with the flexibility of open-source tools. Build, test, and share custom economic models.
Scenario Simulator
Adjust thrust, efficiency, slack, and drag parameters. Run what-if scenarios and project NIV over 1-5 years.
Monte Carlo Analysis
Run thousands of simulations with uncertainty bands. Quantify confidence intervals for your forecasts.
Sensitivity Analysis
Tornado plots showing parameter impacts. Identify which variables drive model outputs.
Fork & Customize
Clone any model configuration. Build custom variants with your own parameter weights.
Shareable Results
Export CSV, PDF reports, or shareable links. Perfect for publications and peer review.
Reproducibility Kit
Python notebooks, Docker containers, and API docs. Reproduce everything locally.
The Engine
National Impact Velocity
NIV = (u × P²) / (X + F)ηAll parameters adjustable: η ∈ [1.0, 2.5], investment multiplier ∈ [1.0, 1.5]
tanh(w_G·ΔG + w_A·ΔA − w_r·Δr)Net policy stimulus with adjustable weights for investment, M2, and rate sensitivity
(Investment × mult) / GDPCapital productivity with tunable R&D/education multiplier (default 1.15)
1 − (TCU / 100)Economic headroom before capacity constraints bind
w_s·s + w_r·(r−π) + w_v·σSystem friction with adjustable weights for yield, rates, and volatility
Data Sources
Public data, transparent methodology
Every data point comes from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) API. No proprietary data. No hidden parameters. Full reproducibility.
8 FRED Series
Investment, M2, Fed Funds, GDP, TCU, Yield Spread, CPI, NBER
Extensible
Add World Bank, BEA, OECD CLI for international comparisons
Real-time
Sub-second updates with automatic data refresh
Audit Trail
Full logging of all calculations for governance
FRED Series Used
Platform
Tools for every research workflow
Custom Model
NewAdjust all NIV parameters. Run Monte Carlo and sensitivity analysis. Export results.
Live Dashboard
Real-time NIV monitoring with component breakdown and crisis probability.
OOS Validation
Walk-forward backtests on 55+ years. Compare vs yield curve and GDP.
API Access
REST endpoints for integration. Pull NIV programmatically for your systems.
Validation
Independently verified results
84.7%
ROC-AUC (OOS)
3/3
Crises Detected
5.3 mo
Avg Lead Time
>72%
vs Yield Curve
Crisis Detection (OOS Test Period)
Training period: 1970–2000 | Testing period: 2001–2025 | No lookahead bias
Get Started
Start building your models
Launch the scenario simulator to adjust parameters, run Monte Carlo analysis, and generate reproducible forecasts with public FRED data.